Extreme Events

Topic Overview (Summary of NOAA data & products related to El Nino / La Nina)

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El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle, and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific warm episode. La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle, and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific cold episode.

Scientists from NOAA and other agencies use a variety of tools and techniques to monitor and forecast changes in the Pacific Ocean and the impact of those changes on global weather patterns. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, El Niño is detected by many methods, including satellites, moored buoys, drifting buoys, sea level analysis, and expendable buoys. Many of these ocean observing systems were part of the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program, and are now evolving into an operational El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) observing system. NOAA also operates a research ship, the KA'IMIMOANA, which is dedicated to servicing the Tropical Ocean Atmosphere (TAO) bouy network component of the observing system.

NOAA research centers including the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) use environmental data from ocean observing systems, as input to computer model simulations of the ENSO phenomenon.

Better predictions of the potential for extreme climate episodes like floods and droughts could save the United States billions of dollars in damage costs. Predicting the life cycle and strength of a Pacific warm or cold episode is critical in helping water, energy and transportation managers, and farmers plan for, avoid or mitigate potential losses. Advances in improved climate predictions will also result in significantly enhanced economic opportunities, particularly for the national agriculture, fishing, forestry and energy sectors, as well as social benefits.